NFL DFS Vegas Report for the Divisional Round (Fantasy Football)
NFL DFS tournaments are all about finding ceiling performance from players in our lineup. In order to maximize upside and correlation, we can use Vegas totals and game lines to help us identify game environments that may help produce these ceiling performances we’re looking for in GPPs. The goal of this article each week is to identify which games are most likely to provide the scoring environment we’re looking for in order to build game stacks in DFS. Similarly, this article will look at games that may either disappoint or are less likely to result in fantasy success.
On the surface, it sounds simple, but there’s more to this process than simply logging into a sportsbook and picking the games with the highest total. We need to be conscious of which games are likely to be most popular for DFS, which may be undervalued, and those that have more downside than the market perceives. Every Tuesday on the Fantasy Footballers DFS Podcast, we give a “state of the main slate” which briefly highlights some of the findings in this article. For the full look, make sure you get in on The Ultimate DFS Pass and check out Kyle’s First Look Pricing for the Divisional Round.
Note: Lines taken below from DraftKings Sportsbook are accurate at the time of publishing.
Team Implied Totals for the Divisional Round
1. DET – 32.5
2. BAL – 26.5
3. PHI – 25.3
T4. KC – 25.0
T4. BUF – 25.0
6. WAS – 23.0
7. LAR – 19.3
8. HOU – 16.5
Saturday Slate
Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs, KC -8.5, O/U: 41.5
The Divisional Round kicks off Saturday afternoon when the Texans travel to Arrowhead for the second time in the last month. These clubs squared off back in Week 16, and unfortunately, that was the game where Tank Dell suffered a serious knee injury. In that contest, which the Chiefs won 27-19, the total closed KC -3 with over/under sitting at 42.5. In this spot, Vegas is projecting another potential lower scoring game, but the betting markets aren’t giving much credit to the Texans with this team projected for fewer than 17 points and the slate’s lowest implied team total.
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