NFL DFS Pace of Play: Game Stacks for Week 18 (Fantasy Football)
Pace of play gives the prospective DFS player an opportunity to consider not just Vegas totals but how the game will be played out in a given week. Game flow is a tricky rabbit hole to jump down when you consider the endless scenarios that can play out in a game. Stacking up-tempo offenses who can keep the ball moving is crucial to gaining an edge in DFS. Even slight differentiations of team trends matter in a world where volume is king.
Each week I’ll highlight my favorite game environments factoring in their pace metrics and stacks to consider for tournaments.
Game Pace Score
A reminder of a simple metric I introduced a couple of years ago: Game Pace Score(GPS). I liked the acronym to also give you a “compass” of how the game total and neutral pace statistics come together. These scores are ranked 1-5 with five indicating the pace of the play is everything you want for a DFS bonanza.
- 5– A back-and-forth shootout is looming. Both teams are pace-up and both sport team implied totals of 25+.
- 4– An up-tempo spot worth game stacking in DFS in multiple ways. Consider multiple game scripts in play.
- 3– This game could go either way. Often, these are onslaught spots for teams with healthy implied totals or games that hit the under because two middling offenses collide.
- 2– Strong indications of a game you want to stay away from. Usually, the pace is dragged down by one team with an absurdly slow neutral pace or a team with a team implied total so low it drags the entire game environment through the mud.
- 1– This has all the makings of a plodder. These games have totals UNDER 40 which gives you zero confidence in DFS.
For Week 18, I’ve sorted by all 32 team implied totals while focusing on seconds per play and pass rate over expectation (PROE), and Expected Points Added per play (EPA) ranks.
For those that would like a CSV version of the above chart, you can download the Week 18 Pace of Play CSV.
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants
Does this game matter? Not really. The Giants hold the #2 pick so in theory losing is of most importance but last week told you they don’t really care about those narratives. Dallas says they are playing all their starters but Jerry Jones also added in some cryptic/old guy talk about Dak and the gameplan. If you rewind the clock back to their Week 2 matchup, Dallas won a barn-burner (40-37!) on a week where Russell Wilson went for 450 & 3. Remember way back then?
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