NFL DFS: DraftKings GPP Picks Week 9 (Fantasy Football)
This article highlights plays that I believe have upside for large field GPPs, but that doesn’t mean we can’t sprinkle in some cash plays into our GPP lineups as well. In fact, most of the best tournament lineups feature a combination of high-rostered and lower-rostered plays. For our full breakdown on DraftKings for Week 9’s cash games, be sure to check out our boy Matthew Betz’s cash picks here.
When building your GPP lineups, be sure to reference our Roster Percentage Report as well as our DFS Rankings to identify plays that have a solid projection yet may be undervalued by the field. For more on how to use roster percentages and build strong GPP lineups, be sure to check out this former episode of the DFS Podcast.
Quarterbacks
Josh Allen $7,300 vs KC or Patrick Mahomes $7,100 @ BUF
Pick your poison in this week’s high-scoring, 52.5 O/U affair. This is cheating, I know, because they are the two most expensive QBs on the slate. But that’s precisely why I chose them, because now that pricing has normalized amongst the studs (like JT and Puka), users must be strategic with salary. In the five meetings vs each other, Allen is 4 – 1 in the regular season, and Mahomes is 4 – 0 in the postseason. In those matchups, they average five rushing/passing TDs per game as a duo. There are no weather worries (wind, rain, and 50 degrees), opening up a high-scoring environment.
What really sticks out in this matchup is the QB’s scramble rates compared to the opposing defense. Mahomes is the best QB in EPA and excels in every aspect in the passing department. The Bills have allowed the second-most rushing TDs in the league (10), creating some upside with Mahomes’ legs if he continues scoring on the ground (four rushing TDs this year). The Bills are not getting picks either, with the 8th-lowest INT rate in the league, which should give us confidence that KC TDs are attainable. Mahomes leads the league in total points scored at 126.
On the flip side, the Chiefs allow the highest scramble rate in the NFL while Josh Allen sits fourth in that metric. He could make magic outside the pocket. Finding a stacking partner for Allen is always a dart throw, but he can get it done on the ground. Personally, I prefer Mahomes as the -2.5 favorites, but that comes with more ownership around 10% while Allen only carries around 5% (as of Friday at noon).
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