Fantasy Football Expected Points & Opportunity: Week 6
Welcome to the Week 6 edition of the Expected Fantasy Points & Opportunity article!
In this article, we will use my Expected Fantasy Points model to identify the most valuable players at each position. While volume is crucial in fantasy football, we have to remember that not every opportunity is created equal and that a player’s fantasy value will vary significantly depending on their usage and offensive ecosystem. To account for those variables, Expected Fantasy Points will quantify each player’s projected fantasy value, based on the down, distance, depth, and location of their opportunities.
The key metrics used in this article are:
- Expected Fantasy Points (or xFP): The average (or expected) fantasy value of a player’s opportunities. This metric is synonymous with volume.
- Fantasy Points Over Expected (FPOE): The difference between a player’s actual fantasy production and their Expected Fantasy Points. Heavily driven by efficiency, this value highlights the portion of a player’s fantasy production that is subject to weekly regression.
What do these metrics tell us?
- My model analyzes fantasy production by volume (xFP) and efficiency (FPOE).
- Players with higher usage values (xFP) are more likely to produce consistently, while players who rely too heavily on efficiency (FPOE) are much more volatile. In other words, we want to target players who rank highly in Expected Fantasy Points!
- xFP is by far the more stable and predictive metric. However, it is not a ranking system. It is only one part of the equation and should be used with other metrics for a holistic view.
- While I caution against investing in too many players who average a higher FPOE, I would NOT avoid them entirely. Players who depend on efficiency simply have a higher range of outcomes. In other words, these players can simultaneously raise the ceiling and lower the floor of your DFS lineups.
- xFP becomes more predictive as the season progresses. The more data points we have available, the more stable and reliable the metric becomes week over week.
If you are new to this series, check out my full series primer, where I break down my Expected Fantasy Points model in more detail. The full version of this article is available only in the DFS Pass.
If you have any additional questions, feel free to reach out on Bluesky @MarvinJE or Twitter @FF_MarvinE.
RUNNING BACKS
- With David Montgomery likely unavailable this week, Woody Marks steps into a prominent role as the Texans’ RB1. In Week 5 against the Titans, Marks was the RB11 in Expected Fantasy Points (15.3), commanding a 32% opportunity share, 75% route participation, and a 12% target share. With heavy involvement as a rusher and receiver, he now profiles as a weekly top-20 RB with RB1 upside. Unfortunately, Marks will face a Jacksonville defense in Week 6 that has been one of the worst matchups this season. For context, they have been a top-5 defense against RBs, only giving up -0.22 EPA per Play and a 33.1% success rate. They have also surrendered only one RB1 performance this season, while allowing the third-lowest Fantasy Points Over Expected to the position (-4.9 per game). Marks’ improved usage should keep him in RB2 territory, though his ceiling will be limited against one of the toughest defenses for RBs.
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