Fantasy Football Expected Points & Opportunity: Week 4
Welcome to the Week 4 edition of the Expected Fantasy Points & Opportunity article!
In this article, we will use my Expected Fantasy Points model to identify the most valuable players at each position. While volume is crucial in fantasy football, we have to remember that not every opportunity is created equal and that a player’s fantasy value will vary significantly depending on their usage and offensive ecosystem. To account for those variables, Expected Fantasy Points will quantify each player’s projected fantasy value, based on the down, distance, depth, and location of their opportunities.
The key metrics used in this article are:
- Expected Fantasy Points (or xFP): The average (or expected) fantasy value of a player’s opportunities. This metric is synonymous with volume.
- Fantasy Points Over Expected (FPOE): The difference between a player’s actual fantasy production and their Expected Fantasy Points. Heavily driven by efficiency, this value highlights the portion of a player’s fantasy production that is subject to weekly regression.
What do these metrics tell us?
- My model analyzes fantasy production by volume (xFP) and efficiency (FPOE).
- Players with higher usage values (xFP) are more likely to produce consistently, while players who rely too heavily on efficiency (FPOE) are much more volatile. In other words, we want to target players who rank highly in Expected Fantasy Points!
- xFP is by far the more stable and predictive metric. However, it is not a ranking system. It is only one part of the equation and should be used with other metrics for a holistic view.
- While I caution against investing in too many players who average a higher FPOE, I would NOT avoid them entirely. Players who depend on efficiency simply have a higher range of outcomes. In other words, these players can simultaneously raise the ceiling and lower the floor of your DFS lineups.
- xFP becomes more predictive as the season progresses. The more data points we have available, the more stable and reliable the metric becomes week over week.
If you are new to this series, check out my full series primer, where I break down my Expected Fantasy Points model in more detail. The full version of this article is available only in the DFS Pass.
If you have any additional questions, feel free to reach out on Bluesky @MarvinJE or Twitter @FF_MarvinE.
RUNNING BACKS
- Jeremiyah Love was finally unleashed in Week 3, leading the Cardinals’ backfield in overall usage. He finished the week as the RB3 in Expected Fantasy Points with 21.1, accounting for 34% of Arizona’s offensive opportunities. Love also set career-highs in snap percentage (63%), route participation (41%), and rushing share (78%) in their matchup against the 49ers. To put it all into perspective, Love is now one of only six RBs this season to exceed 20.0 Expected Fantasy Points in a single game, joining Kenneth Walker, Jahmyr Gibbs, Bijan Robinson, Ashton Jeanty, and Jonathan Taylor. If Week 3’s usage is indicative of how the Cardinals plan to deploy their backfield, Love should be entrenched as a borderline top-five RB going forward.
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